🔥 Deepening Crisis: Israel–Iran Clash Enters New Phase
By: Maxamed Cawil Jaamac
Date: June 17, 2025
Overview
After successive missile and airstrike exchanges, the Israel–Iran confrontation has entered a more volatile phase. It now includes covert operations, regional diplomatic tension, and high-stakes strategic manoeuvering by global powers.
🛩️ 1. Covert & Military Escalation
Mossad’s Underground Strike Surfaced
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Reports confirm that Israel’s intelligence agency, Mossad, covertly established a drone base inside Iran to sabotage missile launchers and air defense systems before the June 13–14 airstrikes en.wikipedia.org+1en.wikipedia.org+1.
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These sabotage efforts significantly weakened Iran’s retaliatory capacity—from an anticipated 1,000 missiles down to roughly 200 launched understandingwar.org+1en.wikipedia.org+1.
Israel’s Operation “Rising Lion” Intensifies
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Between June 13 and 15, Israel’s Air Force struck over 100 targets in Iran, including nuclear facilities, military bases, and air defense infrastructure understandingwar.org+1en.wikipedia.org+1.
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Dozens of Iranian commanders and scientists were killed, and missile launch sites were decimated reuters.com+15understandingwar.org+15reuters.com+15.
🚀 2. Iran’s Massive Missile Retaliation
A Barrage of Ballistic Missiles
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Beginning around June 13, Iran retaliated with over 150 ballistic missiles and 100+ drones targeting major Israeli cities—Tel Aviv, Haifa, Bat Yam and Petah Tikva reuters.com+3en.wikipedia.org+3reuters.com+3.
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Israel intercepted about 80–90% of them, but civilian areas suffered damage. So far, 24 Israelis have been killed and hundreds wounded, mostly from the Iranian strikes en.wikipedia.org.
🌍 3. Diplomatic and Strategic Maneuvers
Iran Remains Defiant—but Cautious
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Iran’s Foreign Minister emphasized they “do not want the conflict to expand,” yet will "defend itself" if attacked again reuters.com.
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Meanwhile, tensions loom around the planned G7 summit, with German Chancellor Merz calling for unity on non-proliferation and regional stability reuters.com+4reuters.com+4reuters.com+4.
Trump’s Surprising Overture
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Former President Trump said a peace deal between Israel and Iran is “near,” hinting that Russia's Putin could mediate—even as Israel intensifies military action theguardian.com+2reuters.com+2nypost.com+2.
☢️ 4. Nuclear Stakes and Global Security
Tehran May Exit the NPT
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Iran’s parliament is moving forward with legislation to withdraw from the Nuclear Non‑Proliferation Treaty (NPT)—a major escalation that alarms many in the West .
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The U.N. nuclear watchdog (IAEA) has already highlighted Tehran’s enrichment violations—but Iran claims its program remains peaceful reuters.com+1reuters.com+1.
📉 5. Economic & Humanitarian Fallout
Markets Brace for Instability
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Oil prices briefly surged past $100/barrel then eased as main infrastructure remained intact, but the Strait of Hormuz remains a major flashpoint .
Civilian Toll
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In Iran, widespread evacuation warnings, damaged infrastructure, and fatalities among commanders and civilians mark the ongoing impact theguardian.com+1reuters.com+1.
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In Israel, missile strikes on residential areas have killed civilians and inflicted damage on schools and homes cbsnews.com.
🔮 6. What Happens Next?
| Factor | Potential Outcome |
|---|---|
| Iran’s response | May escalate if Israel continues strikes; could choose restraint if diplomatic pressure grows. |
| Global diplomacy | G7, U.S., EU, and Russia might leverage the crisis to resume nuclear talks or impose sanctions. |
| Further regional involvement | Syria, Iraq, Lebanon could be dragged in if Iran activates proxy groups. |
✍️ Final Reflection
This war is no longer a distant shadow war—it’s a full-spectrum conflict involving espionage, missiles, diplomacy, and strategic signalling. Civilians are facing dire consequences, and the nuclear crisis looms large. The coming days will determine whether this escalates further or opens a path toward diplomacy.
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