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What Do We Know About Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal – and Why Hasn’t Its Leadership Confirmed or Denied It?

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🖋️ By Maxamed Cawil Jaamac
📅 June 22, 2025

For decades, one of the most closely guarded "open secrets" in international security has been Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons. Although widely believed to have developed nuclear capabilities as far back as the 1960s, Israel has never officially confirmed or denied having such weapons — a policy known as “nuclear ambiguity.”

🧨 What Do We Know?

  • According to independent analysts and leaked intelligence reports, Israel is believed to possess between 80 to 200 nuclear warheads, stored at undisclosed sites.

  • The Dimona nuclear facility in the Negev Desert is thought to be the heart of Israel's nuclear program.

  • Experts say Israel developed nuclear weapons as a deterrence strategy, aiming to protect itself in a volatile Middle East surrounded by historically hostile neighbors.

Despite overwhelming evidence, Israel continues to uphold its policy of deliberate silence — refusing to be a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and declining to let international inspectors access its nuclear facilities.

🤐 Why Doesn't Israel Confirm or Deny?

Israel’s policy of nuclear ambiguity (also called "amimut") serves several strategic goals:

  1. Regional Stability:
    Open admission could trigger a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

  2. U.S. Support:
    Washington, Israel’s closest ally, quietly tolerates the ambiguity. Open confirmation might complicate U.S. policy, as American law restricts aid to nuclear-armed nations outside the NPT.

  3. Diplomatic Shield:
    By not confirming, Israel avoids formal accountability under international disarmament regimes — while still enjoying the strategic deterrence that comes from the assumption that it has the bomb.

⚠️ Israel vs. Iran – The Nuclear Tension

Last week, Israel launched strikes against Iranian targets, claiming Iran is edging dangerously close to producing a nuclear weapon. Iran responded with a barrage of ballistic missiles.

As Javier Buhigas, a peace and security researcher from the Dallas Center for Strategic Studies, explained:

“Israel is the only country in the Middle East with a nuclear arsenal, yet it opposes any regional competitor from acquiring similar capabilities.”

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports Iran holds uranium enriched up to 60%, which is below weapons-grade but technically can be advanced to 90% — the threshold needed for a nuclear bomb.

💬 The Global Dilemma

This double standard — where one nation holds a secret arsenal while condemning others for even approaching such power — remains one of the most controversial aspects of global non-proliferation politics.

Israel's silence speaks volumes. Its refusal to confirm or deny its nuclear arsenal preserves strategic ambiguity, but also fuels resentment, distrust, and accusations of hypocrisy in global diplomacy.

“In a region full of shadows, silence can be louder than speech — and Israel’s nuclear silence echoes through every diplomatic corridor.”
— Maxamed Cawil Jaamac

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