For decades, Gulf Arab governments regarded Iran as the main destabilizing force in the Middle East. Its nuclear ambitions, support for armed groups across the region, and direct attacks on Saudi oil facilities in 2019 cemented its reputation as the number one security threat. Yet according to a recent Guardian analysis by Sanam Vakil of Chatham House, the balance has shifted: Israel is increasingly seen as the greatest source of instability in the Gulf.
The Doha Strikes: A Turning Point
The immediate trigger for this reassessment was Israel’s drone and missile strike on Doha, the capital of Qatar. The attack killed Hamas representatives involved in indirect negotiations with Israel and left civilians dead in a quiet residential district. For Qatar — a U.S. ally that hosts the Al-Udeid air base and has long played the role of mediator in Gaza — the strike represented more than a military operation. It was a red line.
Israel has argued for years that preemptive or extraterritorial attacks are vital to its security. Since Hamas’s October 7, 2023 assault, Israel has escalated such operations across the region, striking in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, and most recently Qatar. Within two years, six regional countries have come under Israeli fire.
This expansion, Vakil argues, has transformed Arab perceptions. Israel is no longer seen as a reactive power defending itself, but as a destabilizing actor whose campaigns are spilling beyond its borders.
Gulf States’ Changing Calculations
For over a generation, Gulf monarchies interpreted instability through the lens of Iran. They feared Tehran’s nuclear program, its support for proxy militias, and its ability to strike regional infrastructure. The 2019 Aramco drone attacks — blamed on Iran or its allies — reinforced this threat perception.
Now, however, Israel’s “borderless campaigns” are reshaping security thinking. From relentless bombardments in Gaza, to raids in the West Bank, to clashes with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and now the unprecedented strike in Doha, Israel is creating a sense of volatility that Gulf rulers cannot ignore.
Vakil’s analysis suggests that Arab leaders are quietly converging on a new consensus: Israel, not Iran, has become the leading disruptor of regional stability.
U.S. Silence and Arab Frustrations
The United States has long guaranteed the Gulf’s security architecture, relying on bases in Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Qatar in particular has been a “major non-NATO ally” since 2022, recognized by President Joe Biden for its role in regional stability.
Yet Washington’s muted response to the Doha strike has unsettled its partners. How could an ally host U.S. troops, bankroll Gaza’s humanitarian relief, and mediate in negotiations — only to suffer a direct Israeli attack with no American protection?
This silence raises difficult questions for Gulf capitals: can they rely on Washington to restrain Israel, or will they be forced to hedge by cultivating ties with other powers such as China, Turkey, or Russia?
Possible Responses from the Gulf
According to the analysis, Gulf governments may respond in three ways:
-
Strengthening intra-Gulf cooperation to reduce dependence on external actors.
-
Diversifying diplomatic partnerships, looking to Beijing, Ankara, and others for balancing leverage.
-
Reconsidering normalization with Israel, slowing or even reversing earlier efforts at rapprochement.
Such moves would represent a profound shift. For years, Gulf rulers sought to balance U.S. protection with cautious engagement with Israel. Now, Israel’s strikes are outpacing those calculations — and inflaming domestic anger among Arab publics already opposed to normalization.
The Broader Strategic Shift
Vakil concludes that Gulf leaders are now seeking greater strategic autonomy, wary of overreliance on Washington and skeptical of Israel’s intentions. The Doha strike, she suggests, may be remembered as a historic moment — not simply for its immediate death toll, but for its symbolic rupture of old security assumptions.
Iran’s threat remains, but it is increasingly seen as predictable and manageable. Israel, by contrast, has become an erratic and aggressive player, capable of launching strikes even against a wealthy U.S. partner like Qatar.
As she writes:
“The Gulf states now view Israel as the region’s greatest destabilizing force, while Iran’s threat has become more predictable, and perhaps even exaggerated.”
Conclusion
For decades, Gulf leaders feared Tehran above all else. Today, in the wake of Israeli strikes from Gaza to Doha, that hierarchy of threats is changing. Israel may soon replace Iran as the central concern shaping Gulf security strategy.
The question now is not whether this perception shift is real — but how Gulf states will act upon it, and whether Washington can still anchor a regional order where its closest partners feel directly threatened by its closest ally.
Comments
Post a Comment